Politics & Government

Dems Eyeing Challenge to Mulvaney in 2014, GOP Not Worried

Fifth District rep will be a formidable foe.

On a computer somewhere in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) offices in Washington, DC there is a list of Republican House members. The members are ranked in order of vulnerability to defeat by a Democrat in 2014.

At present, the GOP controls the House by more than 30 seats. It’s highly unlikely that Democrats can win back control of the House in 2014, especially in mid-term election, where tradition says that the party not occupying the White House will do well.

Nevertheless, the list exists and reasonably high on it is Mick Mulvaney, who represents South Carolina’s 5th District, which covers the portion of the state that is a suburb of Charlotte, notably Rock Hill and Fort Mill.

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Mulvaney was elected in 2010, along with fellow South Carolina Republicans Tim Scott, Trey Gowdy and Jeff Duncan, as part of the Tea Party wave.

Mulvaney was re-elected fairly easily last November, by a margin of 11 percent over Democrat Joyce Knott.

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Given the disappointment Democrats have over the results in the First District, where Mark Sanford defeated Elizabeth Colbert, it’s not a surprise they are pivoting to the next election.

But, there are some factors that suggest the Democrats’ hopes for the Fifth might not be misplaced.

First, more than 30 percent of the voters in SC5 are African-American, who overwhelmingly vote Democratic.

Next, Mulvaney’s seat was held by Democrats for over 30 years—Mulvaney won the seat from longtime occupant John Spratt.

In addition to being more racially diverse, SC5 also is a mix of urban and rural. There is also a large military presence with Shaw Air Force Base. Democrats plan on reminding voters that Mulvaney voted to keep the sequester, which hurt agricultural communities and the military.

Finally, Democrats say that since Mulvaney’s well-publicized battle with House Speaker John Boehner, he’s voted even more conservative, which is outside the mainstream of SC5.

Democrats are confident they can get a viable challenger to Mulvaney. State Sen. Creighton Coleman or former Camden Mayor Jeffrey Graham are a couple of names that have been floated. 

Mulvaney and GOP are Confident

If Mulvaney is irritated about having to talk electoral politics just six months, it doesn’t show. “We’re always running for the next election,” he told Patch. “That’s a function of having to run every two years. What that means is that I meet with constituents a lot and I tell them what’s going on in Washington and they tell me what’s on their mind. That’s me doing me job and that can look a lot like me campaigning.”

Mulvaney agrees that his district might be the most diverse in the state. What’s not diverse is what he hears when he visits with voters. “I get the same questions not matter where I’m at,” Mulvaney said. “People want to know about jobs and the economy.”

At a recent town hall with the NAACP—normally a group inclined to vote Democratic—Mulvaney said the questions were almost exactly what he would have heard in a Republican stronghold.

Mulvaney said he’s often asked about the culture of the Beltway and voters make it clear they want the parties to work together to solve problems. He says the culture is not perfect, but it’s not as bad as it seems either. “Discord sells better than harmony,” Mulvaney said. “When we’re working on common ground issues that doesn’t get a lot of attention and voters are always intrigued when they hear about them.”

Regardless of the audience, Mulvaney answers questions the same way, “The nice thing about being consistent is you don’t have to worry about what you told one group of people or the other,” he said.

As far as the rift with Boehner, Mulvaney said both he and the Speaker have moved on and have a good working relationship. “I’ve been extraordinarily impressed with his leadership. He’s been very effective and reached out to everyone in the caucus.”

In less than two terms, Mulvaney has already earned the reputation as a politician with uncommon command of the issues, particularly on the economy. Anyone who plans on seriously challenging him will have to show similar acumen.

Alex Stroman, the SCGOP Executive Director, doesn’t think such a person exists for Democrats in SC5. Graham and Coleman don’t exactly strike fear into GOP hearts. Graham couldn’t even survive his first re-election campaign.

And even if the Democrats had a strong candidate, Stroman isn’t convinced they could execute enough to win. He said Democrats haven’t shown the ability to organize any kind of statewide race. The fact that Republicans hold 16 of the 17 constitutional and congressional offices would seem to prove that point.

As to the Democrats hopes for Mulvaney’s seat, Stroman said, “They also thought they had a shot in SC1 and we saw how that worked out.”

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