Assessing the Sprint for the SC1 Congressional Seat

The special election for the First Congressional District Seat vacated by Tim Scott’s ascension to the Senate has already attracted plenty of attention.

With Mark Sanford, Ted Turner’s son Teddy and Stephen Colbert’s sister Elizabeth in the race, that was predictable.

What’s less predictable is how the seven-week primary will play out. Sixteen Republicans, three Democrats and two Green Party candidates make predictions a fool’s errand.

On the Democratic side, the race would seem to be between Elizabeth Colbert-Busch and Martin Skelly. Neither candidate has put forth much by way of policy positions, but based on name recognition alone, Colbert-Busch has an edge. It’s up to her to take advantage of it in the next seven weeks.

The Republicans side, with so many candidates, is less clear and has been getting the bulk of media attention since the District is so conservative.

The Favorite and the Top Tier

The clear cut favorite among the GOP is Sanford. His name recognition—though obviously not for the best of reasons—is far and away greater than that of the rest of the field. He also has a significant fundraising advantage with $1.2 million available in previously dormant campaign accounts, though it's not clear how much of that he can use.

The next tier of candidates includes all of the current officeholders in the race, plus one more. State Sen. Larry Grooms and State Reps. Chip Limehouse, Peter McCoy and Andy Patrick have a few advantages over the rest of the field in that they all have records they can run on, they have an existing fundraising network they can tap into and they have relationships with local political leaders.

Having a record to run on isn’t necessarily a positive, though. Grooms is among the most conservative members of the Senate and while that may help in the primary, moderate voters in the general election might consider him too far to the right.

Limehouse has the opposite problem. He’s already been labeled a RINO in several corners based on his voting record in the House, which undercuts his argument as a fiscal conservative.

Patrick and McCoy have both only been in office for two years—they each just began their second term—so they’re legislative accomplishments are comparatively thin.

However, Grooms, Limehouse, McCoy and Patrick are all very popular among their constituents and turning out that support on primary day could be the difference.

The other candidate who belongs in this tier is Teddy Turner. Turner has taken advantage of the national media attention he’s received and differentiated himself from his more liberal father. Former Sanford staffer Chris Drummond is heading up Turner's campaign and it shows in the advertising Turner has done thus far. Sources within SC1 told Patch that Turner has raised plenty of money and done well when he’s been out meeting conservative groups. 

The Next Tier

The next tier of candidates is the rest of the field: Keith Blandford, Curtis Bostic, Ric Bryant, Jonathan Hoffman, Jeff King, John Kuhn, Tim Larkin, Elizabeth Moffly, Ray Nash and Shawn Pinkston.

These candidates have the odds stacked against them. Compared to those previously mentioned they have low name recognition. So, they have the dual challenge of introducing themselves to voters and raising money. Such conditions have been in place before—Gov. Nikki Haley is the most obvious example. But Haley had several months to get in front of voters and connect with donors. The GOP primary in SC1 is only seven weeks long.

Who could emerge from this pack? The most likely choices are Elizabeth Moffly and Jonathan Hoffman.

Moffly has run a statewide race—challenging Mick Zais for State Superintendent of Schools in 2010. She actually beat Zais in Charleston County, where she serves on the school board.

Hoffman’s best case is his resume. He wrote Homeland Security policy for the Bush Administration and is a Judge Advocate General for the Air Force in Charleston. 

Let the Jockeying Begin

In a short race with so many candidates, it is a cliché but not an exaggeration to say anything can happen. The best chance for one of the lesser-known candidates to shake things up would be in the form of a high-profile endorsement, such as one from Scott or Haley. But sources close to both told Patch that will likely not happen.

As it stands now, Sanford is the odds-on favorite to make it to a run-off. But who he’ll face is far from settled. It’s possible that someone could make the run-off with as little as 15 percent of the vote, or, assuming a turnout of 40 percent, about 8,000 votes. More than one candidate has told Patch they are focused on getting to a certain number of votes and letting the chips fall where they may.

How to get to that number? The candidates will have to separate themselves though their message. All of them will slam President Obama at every turn, call for lower taxes, bemoan the growing federal debt and extol their merits as a social conservative. The one that can make the best case for his candidacy and deliver fresh ideas on policy will have the best chance of taking on Sanford.

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